Concerning Troop Levels in Afghanistan, June 26, 2010

Recent estimates put the total number of Al Quaeda at 100 or less, none in Afghanistan; estimates from the fall of 2009 put the number of Taliban involved in operations in Afghanistan at 25000, many of which are not active insurgents (and other estimates, not prepared in the context of justifying a buildup, had typically been at about 10000), and the Taliban have been dissociating themselves from AQ since 2008. The Karzai government is widely discredited and unpopular.

The buildup makes little apparent sense in this context.

And also:

Graham Fuller's recent piece assessing the conflict is well worth reading in connection with Ms Feinstein's comments.
(http://www­.huffingto­npost.com/­graham-e-f­uller/glob­al-viewpoi­nt-obamas-­p_b_201355­.html) Some of the main points:
"- Military force will not win the day in either Afghanistan or Pakistan; crises have only grown worse under the U.S. military footprint.
-- Most Pashtuns see the Taliban -- like them or not -- as the primary vehicle for restoration of Pashtun power in Afghanistan, lost in 2001. Pashtuns are also among the most fiercely nationalist, tribalized and xenophobic peoples of the world, united only against the foreign invader.
-- It is a fantasy to think of ever sealing the Pakistan-A

­fghanistan border. The struggle of 13 million Afghan Pashtuns has already inflamed Pakistan's 28 million Pashtuns.
-- India is the primary geopolitical threat to Pakistan, not Afghanistan. Pakistan must therefore always maintain Afghanistan as a friendly state. India furthermore is intent upon gaining a serious foothold in Afghanistan.
-- Pakistan will therefore never rupture ties or abandon the Pashtuns, in either country, whether radical Islamist or not.
-- Occupation everywhere creates hatred, as the U.S. is learning. Yet Pashtuns remarkably have not been part of the jihadi movement at the international level, although many are indeed quick to ally themselves at home with al-Qaida against the U.S. military.
-- The situation in Pakistan has gone from bad to worse as a direct consequence of the U.S. war raging on the Afghan border."